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1. PREDICTION OF MONSOONS
UNSTARRED QUESTION 320
10/11/2010
(a) the current technology in place for the prediction of monsoons;
(b) the relative success of this technology in accurately predicting
rainfall patterns;
(c) whether the Government plans on introducing a dynamic model for the
prediction of monsoon patterns through the Monsoon Mission; and
(d) if so, the success achieved so far by using this model?
ANSWER
THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY, MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES, MINISTER OF STATE IN THE PRIME
MINISTER’S OFFICE, MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF PERSONNEL,
PUBLIC GRIEVANCES & PENSIONS AND MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF
PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS(SHRI PRITHVIRAJ CHAVAN)
(a) The current seasonal monsoon rainfall forecasting system uses
advanced statistical techniques for providing forecasts for monthly and
seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole and over four geographical
regions (Northwest India, Central India, Northeast India and South
Peninsula) with respect to its long period average (LPA).
(b) The performance evaluation of these models suggests limitations in
capturing the extreme variability (excess/deficit) of the seasonal
quantum of rainfall.
(c) Yes, Madam.
(d) The performance of an adopted coupled ocean-atmospheric model of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA is being
critically examined for the monsoon-2010 in terms of reasonably
capturing locations of excess and deficient rainfall on monthly and
seasonal scales at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorological (IITM),
Pune. Based on the above, it is planned to develop a suitable dynamical
model for improving the prediction of the monsoon.
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